Chicory Network Trends: 11/10/2020-11/30/2020

How did Thanksgiving, the largest week for recipes, fare in the Chicory network? We dug into our data to derive insights on how Thanksgiving 2020 differed -- and, actually didn’t differ all that much -- from years past. 

In the following insights report, we found that the top Thanksgiving dishes in each state followed trends from years past, with classics like green bean casserole, mashed potatoes and stuffing taking the lead.

On the other hand, some of the typical food trends that we see each year leading up to Thanksgiving and on Thanksgiving day changed in interesting ways. 

  • More casseroles and pies, less shareable bites and dips

  • An increase in views for basic, step-by-step recipes for first-time holiday cooks

  • More experimental and alternative meats at the holiday table

  • Boost in post-Thanksgiving recipes on how to repurpose leftover turkey

Finally, we shed some light on how Thanksgiving trends may foreshadow those that we’ll see during Christmas and New Year’s this year.

Top Thanksgiving Dishes by State

The stuffing versus dressing debate lives on, and with votes split regionally, green bean casserole snuck in again as the nation’s most popular Thanksgiving side. The recipe, invented by Campbell’s Soup in 1955 has gained various treatments since its inception with versions like Tex-Mex Green Bean Casserole, Green Bean and Tomato Casserole and Gluten-Free Green Bean Casserole gaining views from Thanksgiving cooks this year. But the classic version topped the charts in fourteen states. The top Thanksgiving dishes in each American state are as follows.

 
Thanksgiving Recipes by State Map.png
 

The results of these trends had an effect on carts, too. Ingredients that typically show low engagement, like pecan halves, cream of mushroom soup, and sage, skyrocket in the last two weeks of November. This helps to validate the claims that 40% of cream of mushroom soup sales happen in November alone.

COVID-19 Affects Thanksgiving Food Trends

MORE CASSEROLES AND PIES AND FEWER SHAREABLE BITES AND DIPS

Recipe views for bites and dips significantly decreased this year compared to last year. In fact, during the week leading up to Thanksgiving, we saw a 53% decrease in recipe views for dips and an 18% decrease in recipe views for handheld bites compared to the previous year. This indicates that many families kept gatherings limited, following CDC guidelines. 

On the other hand, we saw a 27% increase in recipe views for pies and a 7% increase in recipe views for casseroles during the same timeframe. So, while shoppers kept gatherings smaller, they got rid of shareable apps on their menus and doubled down on creamy, comforting classics.

 
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Casseroles.png
Handheld Appetizers.png
Pies.png
 

FIRST-TIME COOKS SEARCHED FOR MORE STEP-BY-STEP RECIPES

Chicory’s holiday survey found that one in four Americans planned to cook their own holiday meals for the first time. Backed by our data, views for basic, how-to recipes increased by 20% during the week leading up to and including Thanksgiving this year (11/20-26/2020) compared to last year (11/22-28/2019). 

Consumers were most engaged with how-to recipes for:

  • Turkey Brine

  • Turkey

  • Turkey Gravy

  • Oven-Baked Bacon

  • Sage Stuffing

  • Roasted Garlic

  • Slow Cooker Mashed Potatoes

EXPERIMENTAL MAIN MEATS

With smaller celebrations and more intimate gatherings, more consumers had the opportunity to experiment with a centerpiece meat other than turkey. This year, we saw meaty mains like duck, rack of lamb and beef roast take center stage during Thanksgiving prep--and many consumers opted for Cornish hen, seeking a single-serve poultry option to take the place of a 20-lb bird. In fact, we saw 36% more views for Cornish hen recipes, 100% more views for duck recipes, 135% more views for rack of lamb recipes and 34% more views for beef roast recipes, year-over-year.

Over the past quarter ending on Thanksgiving day, recipe views for these ingredients increased dramatically.

 
Duck Views.png
Rack of Lamb Views.png
Cornish Hen Views.png
Beef Roasts Views.png
 

SMALLER CELEBRATIONS MEANS MORE LEFTOVERS

When turkey was the star, consumers clearly were left with way too much for a single meal. Leftovers featuring ideas for repurposing turkey were much more popular in 2020 than 2019:

 
Small Celebrations Leftovers.png
 

Holiday Forecasts

While it may seem like the effects of COVID-19 have somewhat normalized, Thanksgiving food trends this year made it clear that the grocery industry will need to continue to adjust to many small shifts to consumer food, eating, cooking and grocery shopping habits. 

Particularly as we move into December and inch closer to the Christmas and New Year season, we may see even more consumers pull away from holiday traditions, as those holidays are less tied to classics like turkey and green bean casserole. It will be an even bigger opportunity for consumers to experiment with new holiday traditions, as many celebrate away from their extended families and cook holiday meals for the first or second time. 

CPG brands and grocers alike need to stay sharp and nimble and be prepared for changing expectations and holiday habits as the end of the year approaches.

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